Gulf of Maine Seasonal Sea Surface Temperature Update

Seasonal Patterns in Sea Surface Temperatures

About the Updates:

Over the past decade, scientists at the Gulf of Maine Research Institute have led a body of research that highlights the rapid pace of warming in the Gulf of Maine. To keep you informed, we share seasonal updates about conditions in the Gulf of Maine.

Note About the Data: The figures in this report are created using remotely-sensed satellite data as part of publicly funded research efforts. Satellite SST data was obtained from NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), with all maps and figures displaying NOAA’s Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Data.

Note on Preliminary Data: This dataset has a 2-week latency period, during which values may change due to quality control measures. Any data within 14 days of the publishing date may be subject to change.

The Gulf of Maine Region

For analyses like these, it is important to be clear about the spatial extent that “defines” the Gulf of Maine (Figure 1), as different borders could produce different results. The spatial domain we use as the “Gulf of Maine” is displayed below. This area is consistent with previous reports and publications GMRI has produced.

Figure 1: Spatial domain used for Gulf of Maine SST analyses.

Season Highlights

For this seasonal report we present an analysis of SST for Fall (September 1st - November 30th) for the year 2022. This season the average SST for the Gulf of Maine was 60°F, making it the 2nd hottest fall on record for the period of 1982-2022 — the period over which the satellite data used are available. These temperatures are 4.44°F above the long-term (1982-2011) Fall average of 55.56°F.

Weekly Temperatures

In the below table (Table 1), we highlight how the SST for each week this fall compares to a 30-year baseline period (climatological averages from 1982 through 2011).

The observed SST, long-term average SST, and SST anomalies (departures from the long-term average SST) are shown. As expected, SSTs generally rise as the summer season progresses, with anomalies showing no clear trend over the course of the season. Rather, departures from the long-term average hovered around 3°F above normal with a few weeks punctuated by anomalies exceeded 5°F.

Table 1: Observed, climatological average, and deviation from the climatological average (i.e., temperature anomaly) for SST at a weekly resolution in the Gulf of Maine during summer 2022 (defined as September 1st - November 30th)

Weekly Sea Surface Temperatures - Fall
Fall (September 1st - November 30th)
One-Week Period	Observed Temperature		Climatological Average		Temperature Anomaly
	°F	°C	°F	°C	°F	°C
Sep 01 - Sep 03	66.6	19.2	61.5	16.40	5.14	2.85
Sep 04 - Sep 10	66.3	19.0	61.0	16.10	5.21	2.90
Sep 11 - Sep 17	65.4	18.6	60.3	15.70	5.07	2.82
Sep 18 - Sep 24	63.1	17.3	59.5	15.30	3.58	1.99
Sep 25 - Oct 01	60.7	15.9	58.6	14.80	2.13	1.18
Oct 02 - Oct 08	59.6	15.4	57.5	14.20	2.16	1.20
Oct 09 - Oct 15	59.4	15.2	56.3	13.50	3.05	1.69
Oct 16 - Oct 22	59.3	15.1	55.1	12.90	4.11	2.28
Oct 23 - Oct 29	59.5	15.3	54.0	12.20	5.56	3.09
Oct 30 - Nov 05	59.4	15.2	52.9	11.60	6.53	3.63
Nov 06 - Nov 12	58.4	14.7	51.9	11.00	6.57	3.65
Nov 13 - Nov 19	56.6	13.7	50.9	10.50	5.75	3.19
Nov 20 - Nov 26	53.8	12.1	49.9	9.94	3.93	2.18
Nov 27 - Nov 30	52.4	11.3	49.1	9.51	3.28	1.82
Data Source: NOAA OISSTv2 Daily Sea Surface Temperature Data.
Climatology Reference Period: 1982-2011.

Monthly Statistics

Looking at monthly averages (as opposed to week-by-week conditions ?@tbl-monthly-temps), we see each month was 3.84°F or more above the 1982-2011 climatological average. November showed the largest deviation from the long-term climatological average, with an average SST anomaly of 5.33°F.

?(caption)

Month	Observed Temperature		Climatological Average		Temperature Anomaly		Temperature Progression
	°F	°C	°F	°C	°F	°C	temp_list
Sep	64.3	17.9	60.1	15.6	4.17	2.32
Oct	59.5	15.3	55.7	13.1	3.84	2.13
Nov	56.3	13.5	50.9	10.5	5.33	2.96
Data Source: NOAA OISSTv2 Daily Sea Surface Temperature Data.
Climatology Reference Period: 1982-2011.

Seasonal Trends and Anomalies in Context

The Gulf of Maine is an area of particular interest to the scientific community because of the remarkable rate of warming it has experienced in recent years coupled with its importance as a major driver for the regional economy.

Figure 2: Average annual spring SSTs in the Gulf of Maine from 1982 through 2022. The solid red line indicates the trend for the full time series.

When looking at average fall temperatures, there is a clear long-term increase, with SST’s warming at a rate of 1.16°F per decade. Recent warm Fall SST anomalies are consistent with a thermal regime shift that occurred around 2010. This rate of warming is ~4x the rate that global ocean temperatures are warming during these same months, a rate of 0.26°F per decade.

Figure 3: Average annual spring SSTs in the Gulf of Maine from 1982 through 2022. The solid orange line indicates the trend for the full time series for the Gulf of Maine. A solid blue line indicates the trend for the full time series for the global oceans.

This period of faster warming is part of what appears to be a distinct regime in the Gulf of Maine. The drivers of this (e.g., a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and shifts in the path of the Gulf Stream) have been well-documented in the peer-reviewed literature, including through research by GMRI scientists.

Yearly boxplots displaying the distribution of temperatures for each summer. The average summer temperature is displayed in red, and the climate reference period for that climatological average is described using the black bracket.

How Does 2022 Compare?

2022 is among the warmest falls seen in the Gulf of Maine during this 41 year period. When compared against all previous falls for which we have reliable satellite data (i.e., back to 1982), this year ranks 2nd among the hottest on record. The top 5 warmest Fall have all occurred in the last decade.

Figure 4: An illustration of where spring 2022 ranks among the top five warmest spring seasons on record in the Gulf of Maine. Also notable is the fact that all five warmest spring seasons on record have occurred in the last ten years.

Marine Heatwave Timeline

The most commonly used definition of a “marine heatwave” (MHW) is when daily average SST’s exceed the 90th percentile of a climatological (i.e., 30-year) average for at least 5 consecutive days. Successive heatwave gaps of 2 days or less are considered part of the same event.

Using this broadly accepted definition, the Gulf of Maine has experienced MHW conditions for 0.97 of fall 2022 A brief reprieve in mid-May lasted less than two days, so it did not constitute a break in the heatwave event.

A timeseries of marine heatwave (MHW) conditions in the Gulf of Maine extending from January 2022 through August 31. Black lines representing the long-term (i.e., 1982 – 2011) average SST, the 10th percentile, and 90th percentile for a given day in the Gulf of Maine are labelled to indicate climatological reference points; a solid line (red for marine heatwave or blue for a non-event) indicate the observed SST this year; red and blue shading illustrates how far the observed SST falls from the climatological mean.

Heatwave Anomaly Timeline

Presenting SST conditions in terms of anomalies (figure below) as opposed to absolute values (figure above) illustrates in greater detail the magnitude of MHW conditions throughout the fall.

The most extreme anomalies this fall occurred in August, with temperatures exceeding \(6°\)F above the climatological average.

A timeseries of daily average SST anomalies in the Gulf of Maine (solid red line) compared to marine heatwave (MHW) conditions (dashed black line) in the Gulf of Maine for the period January 1 through August 31, 2022.

Heatmap of Temperature Anomalies and Heatwave Events

Looking at the full record of daily SST anomalies in the Gulf of Maine (figure below), the distinct thermal regime shift beginning around 2010 is evident. Indeed, since 2012, the Gulf of Maine has experienced far more persistent MHW conditions (indicated by solid black lines) than at any other point in the satellite record.

Heat map of daily sea surface temperature anomalies from the beginning of 1982 through the middle of 2022. Not only do more large warm anomalies (darker reds) appear more frequently in recent years, but the frequency and duration of marine heatwave events (black lines) in the Gulf of Maine has become more pronounced in the past decade.

Monthly Rankings Heatmap

Figure 5: A heatmap displaying the average temperature anomaly for each month, for each year. Text within each cell indicates how hot that month was compared to the same month across all years beginning at 1 for the hottest month on record.

Spatial Distribution of Seasonal Anomalies

From a spatial perspective, the Gulf of Maine and surrounding areas experienced above average SST’s for much of the region during fall 2022, but with particularly warm patches to the south and east of Georges Bank. The highest seasonally averaged anomaly of any location above was 8.88°F.

Figure 6: Map of average SST anomalies in spring 2022. The box outlined by the black dashed line denotes the region of study for the analysis. Darker red regions indicate stronger anomalies.

Monthly Temperature Anomalies

Average monthly temperature anomalies are displayed below. The warmest anomalies were concentrated just south of the domain studied in this analysis in June, by July SST anomalies within the Gulf of Maine were equally hot. Monthly-averaged SST anomalies in the Gulf of Maine and the surrounding areas reached > 8°F warmer than during our climate reference period (1982-2011).

This series of maps shows the average monthly SST temperature anomalies in June, July, and August 2022. The box outlined by the black dashed line denotes the region of study for the analysis. Darker red regions indicate stronger anomalies.

A Note on Data Sources:

NOAA_ERSST_V5 data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html.

NOAA High Resolution SST data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html.

If you would like to cite this report, pleasue use: > Gulf of Maine Research Institute. 2022. Gulf of Maine Warming Update: 2021 the Hottest Year on Record. https://gmri.org/stories/warming-21

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A work by Adam A. Kemberling

Akemberling@gmri.org

 

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